Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate overnight lows in the mid-70s°F for Austin on September 4, driven by persistent southerly flow, elevated dew points near 70°F, and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies following daytime highs in the mid-90s. This setup aligns with climatological norms for early September, when average minima hover near 71°F, though recent model runs show slight spread from potential thunderstorm outflows or minor wind shifts that could nudge readings a few degrees lower or sustain warmth. The closely matched market-implied probabilities across mid-70s bins and the tails reflect this forecast uncertainty, with traders incorporating historical variability and the risk that unmodeled moisture or timing shifts could alter the daily minimum before resolution.