Recent official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and multiple numerical models indicate a highest temperature of 24–26 °C on September 4, driven by persistent mid-level cloud cover and afternoon convective showers that reduce insolation across the high-elevation Valley of Mexico. Seasonal norms for early September already hover near 25 °C, and the current pattern—enhanced moisture from the monsoon and distant tropical cyclone Marie—favors scattered storms rather than clear-sky heating. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 26 °C and 27 °C, while the modest probability assigned to 28 °C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in storm timing and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming.