Recent forecasts for Chengdu point to an overnight low near 22–24°C on August 21, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities clustered at 24°C (55.5%) and 23°C (34.5%). Seasonal averages place typical August nighttime minima around 22°C, while current model guidance from regional agencies shows partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high humidity that limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping sharply. No significant cold-air advection or frontal passage is indicated in the latest runs, reducing the chance of readings at or below 20°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable synoptic conditions against normal interannual variability, producing the observed concentration of probability mass between 21°C and 24°C. Updated model outputs expected later today could refine the final observed minimum.