**Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international sources (AccuWeather, Met Office) indicate a nighttime low of roughly 24–26 °C for Jinan on 21 August 2026, placing the daily minimum comfortably above 22 °C.** Typical late-August climatology for Jinan shows average overnight lows near 23–24 °C under prevailing southerly flow and high humidity; current guidance shows no strong cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiational cooling that would push readings lower. Scattered thunderstorms may briefly suppress temperatures but are not expected to produce the sharp drops needed for sub-22 °C readings. Market prices reflect this: the 58 % implied probability on “22 °C or higher” aligns with the consensus forecast range, while the modest probabilities clustered around 16–21 °C capture residual model spread and the small chance of localized cooling under heavy rain. Outcomes below 17 °C carry negligible odds because they would require an atypical early-autumn cold surge that current synoptic patterns do not support. Updated model runs and official minimum-temperature observations released overnight will be the key near-term drivers for any probability shifts.