Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Jinan hovering near 16–17°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, supporting the tight market split between those outcomes. Clearer intervals overnight promote radiative cooling from the surface, while moderate humidity around 50% and dew points near 15°C limit further drops, distinguishing the 16°C and 17°C thresholds from lower probabilities. Regional high pressure maintains stable conditions without strong cold advection, consistent with typical mid-September baselines for the area, though minor model disagreements on cloud cover timing introduce uncertainty ahead of final official station readings.