Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 13 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 13 сентября?
25°C или выше 65%
15°C или ниже 56%
18°C 39%
19°C 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
15°C или ниже
56%
16°C
26%
17°C
22%
18°C
39%
19°C
26%
20°C
16%
21°C
14%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C или выше
65%
25°C или выше 65%
15°C или ниже 56%
18°C 39%
19°C 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
15°C или ниже
$0 Объем
56%
16°C
$0 Объем
26%
17°C
$0 Объем
22%
18°C
$0 Объем
39%
19°C
$0 Объем
26%
20°C
$0 Объем
16%
21°C
$0 Объем
14%
22°C
$0 Объем
1%
23°C
$0 Объем
1%
24°C
$0 Объем
1%
25°C или выше
$0 Объем
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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