Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies and high pressure dominating Madrid on September 12, promoting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling with expected minimum temperatures of 15–19 °C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. The near-even market split between 11 °C or below and 21 °C or higher reflects genuine uncertainty in precise minimums driven by variables such as local wind patterns, urban heat-island retention, and minor dew-point differences that can shift the overnight low by several degrees. Upcoming model runs and real-time observations will clarify whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer tail of the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 12 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 12 сентября?
11°C или ниже 81%
21°C или выше 73%
12°C 39%
13°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 сент. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
81%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
31%
15°C
24%
16°C
21%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C или выше
73%
11°C или ниже 81%
21°C или выше 73%
12°C 39%
13°C 39%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 сент. 2026 г.
11°C или ниже
$0 Объем
81%
12°C
$0 Объем
39%
13°C
$0 Объем
39%
14°C
$4 Объем
31%
15°C
$0 Объем
24%
16°C
$0 Объем
21%
17°C
$0 Объем
39%
18°C
$0 Объем
39%
19°C
$0 Объем
2%
20°C
$0 Объем
2%
21°C или выше
$0 Объем
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies and high pressure dominating Madrid on September 12, promoting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling with expected minimum temperatures of 15–19 °C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. The near-even market split between 11 °C or below and 21 °C or higher reflects genuine uncertainty in precise minimums driven by variables such as local wind patterns, urban heat-island retention, and minor dew-point differences that can shift the overnight low by several degrees. Upcoming model runs and real-time observations will clarify whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$4Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies and high pressure dominating Madrid on September 12, promoting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling with expected minimum temperatures of 15–19 °C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. The near-even market split between 11 °C or below and 21 °C or higher reflects genuine uncertainty in precise minimums driven by variables such as local wind patterns, urban heat-island retention, and minor dew-point differences that can shift the overnight low by several degrees. Upcoming model runs and real-time observations will clarify whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$4Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies and high pressure dominating Madrid on September 12, promoting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling with expected minimum temperatures of 15–19 °C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16 °C while remaining well above historical extremes. The near-even market split between 11 °C or below and 21 °C or higher reflects genuine uncertainty in precise minimums driven by variables such as local wind patterns, urban heat-island retention, and minor dew-point differences that can shift the overnight low by several degrees. Upcoming model runs and real-time observations will clarify whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer tail of the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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