**Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to an overnight low in Miami on August 31 around 80–82°F, with the most likely minimum near 81°F.** This supports the market’s leading 80-81°F bin (46% implied probability) and the strong 78-79°F share (31%), as persistent humidity, light easterly winds, and scattered evening thunderstorms limit radiational cooling. Typical late-August conditions feature high dew points in the upper 70s, which trap heat near the surface even after sunset. Current model runs show partly cloudy skies and a 60–70% chance of storms during the day, leaving residual moisture and cloud cover that prevents the temperature from falling to the historical average low of 77.5°F. No cold front or dry-air intrusion is expected in the next 48 hours to drive a sharper drop. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus guidance that the low will hold in the upper 70s to low 80s, with only modest probability assigned to cooler outcomes below 78°F or warmer readings above 82°F. The market’s distribution aligns closely with the latest official forecasts emphasizing elevated minimum temperatures driven by the ongoing humid, maritime tropical air mass.