Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and national meteorological services converge on a minimum temperature of 18–19°C for Milan on September 15, driven by clear skies, light easterly winds under 5 km/h, and high pressure maintaining dry conditions that permit moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with current surface observations near 19°C and diurnal ranges typical of late-summer anticyclonic setups, where daytime highs reach 26–28°C before temperatures bottom out around dawn. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects model agreement on the absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as increased cloud cover or northerly flow, while the notable share assigned to 13°C or below captures residual tail risk from forecast shifts in steering patterns. Historical September minima average near 14°C, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated model runs and official NHC-equivalent briefings from Italian agencies will provide the next key data points before resolution.