Recent forecasts from sources including the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and global models (GFS) point to a mild overnight period for Moscow on September 4, with the daily minimum expected near 12–14 °C amid southwesterly flow at 3–7 m/s and surface pressure near 1010–1013 hPa. Daytime highs are projected around 20–21 °C under partly cloudy skies, but the overnight low will hinge on the degree of cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which limit radiational cooling when dew points hover near 11–13 °C. The near-even market-implied odds around 11 °C, 13 °C, and 14 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in how quickly any residual moisture or thin cloud deck dissipates after sunset, as well as minor spread among ensemble members for the 00–06 UTC window. A slightly stronger nocturnal inversion or clearer skies could push the minimum toward the lower end of that range, while persistent low-level moisture or a modest wind increase would favor the higher side. Traders are monitoring the next official Hydromet update and fresh model runs for clearer signals on these variables before the market resolves.