Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including LaGuardia Airport, recorded a minimum temperature of 76–77°F on August 13, 2026, aligning precisely with the market's dominant outcome. This value reflects typical late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure regime, with light winds, high humidity, and minimal overnight radiational cooling—factors that prevented temperatures from dropping into the low 70s or below despite clear skies. Historical August lows in New York City average near 69°F, but current atmospheric patterns produced warmer nights consistent with recent model consensus. Only an unexpected influx of cooler, drier air from a frontal passage or measurement anomaly at the resolution station could have altered the outcome.