An approaching heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge has positioned elevated overnight minimums as the dominant factor in trader positioning for Paris on June 18. Météo-France forecasts indicate a warm air mass with daytime peaks near 36°C and nighttime lows around 20°C under clear skies and light winds, limiting radiative cooling. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer temperatures, supporting the market's emphasis on 18–19°C outcomes as the most probable range for the official minimum recorded at reference stations. Urban heat island effects in central Paris further reduce the likelihood of sub-17°C readings, while recent model runs have not introduced cooler anomalies that would shift implied probabilities toward lower bins. Updated guidance expected overnight will clarify any adjustments to these thermal profiles ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Париже 18 июня?
18°C 43%
19°C 30%
17°C 17%
20°C 5%
13°C или ниже
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
17%
18°C
43%
19°C
30%
20°C
5%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C или выше
<1%
18°C 43%
19°C 30%
17°C 17%
20°C 5%
13°C или ниже
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
17%
18°C
43%
19°C
30%
20°C
5%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...An approaching heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge has positioned elevated overnight minimums as the dominant factor in trader positioning for Paris on June 18. Météo-France forecasts indicate a warm air mass with daytime peaks near 36°C and nighttime lows around 20°C under clear skies and light winds, limiting radiative cooling. Ensemble models show modest spread in boundary-layer temperatures, supporting the market's emphasis on 18–19°C outcomes as the most probable range for the official minimum recorded at reference stations. Urban heat island effects in central Paris further reduce the likelihood of sub-17°C readings, while recent model runs have not introduced cooler anomalies that would shift implied probabilities toward lower bins. Updated guidance expected overnight will clarify any adjustments to these thermal profiles ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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