The U.S. Senate's narrow 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, just two days before Jerome Powell's term expires, has locked in trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for Warsh presiding over a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting persistent inflation surging to a three-year high that complicates rate cuts. Current Fed target at 3.50-3.75% shows no easing in 2026 forecasts from major banks, amid economic fallout from geopolitical tensions and steady FOMC holds. Trump's preference for looser monetary policy faces data-driven hawkishness from Warsh, a former Fed governor, with only an abrupt disinflation or recession likely to shift odds toward the 8.9% Warsh & ≤2.5% outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПрогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС
Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 87%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 9.0%
Другое 1.9%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5% <1%
$147,674 Объем
$147,674 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%
87%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%
9%
Другое
2%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%
<1%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
<1%
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 87%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 9.0%
Другое 1.9%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5% <1%
$147,674 Объем
$147,674 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%
$7,496 Объем
87%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$5,626 Объем
9%
Другое
$16,397 Объем
2%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%
$11,143 Объем
<1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$15,587 Объем
<1%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$35,760 Объем
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%
$11,326 Объем
<1%
Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%
$32,505 Объем
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$11,834 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.The U.S. Senate's narrow 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, just two days before Jerome Powell's term expires, has locked in trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for Warsh presiding over a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting persistent inflation surging to a three-year high that complicates rate cuts. Current Fed target at 3.50-3.75% shows no easing in 2026 forecasts from major banks, amid economic fallout from geopolitical tensions and steady FOMC holds. Trump's preference for looser monetary policy faces data-driven hawkishness from Warsh, a former Fed governor, with only an abrupt disinflation or recession likely to shift odds toward the 8.9% Warsh & ≤2.5% outcome.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Объем
$147,674Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.The U.S. Senate's narrow 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, just two days before Jerome Powell's term expires, has locked in trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for Warsh presiding over a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting persistent inflation surging to a three-year high that complicates rate cuts. Current Fed target at 3.50-3.75% shows no easing in 2026 forecasts from major banks, amid economic fallout from geopolitical tensions and steady FOMC holds. Trump's preference for looser monetary policy faces data-driven hawkishness from Warsh, a former Fed governor, with only an abrupt disinflation or recession likely to shift odds toward the 8.9% Warsh & ≤2.5% outcome.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Объем
$147,674Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The U.S. Senate's narrow 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, just two days before Jerome Powell's term expires, has locked in trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for Warsh presiding over a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting persistent inflation surging to a three-year high that complicates rate cuts. Current Fed target at 3.50-3.75% shows no easing in 2026 forecasts from major banks, amid economic fallout from geopolitical tensions and steady FOMC holds. Trump's preference for looser monetary policy faces data-driven hawkishness from Warsh, a former Fed governor, with only an abrupt disinflation or recession likely to shift odds toward the 8.9% Warsh & ≤2.5% outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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