Recent constituency polling, including a Survation survey placing Restore Britain on 7% and an Opinium poll showing competitive Labour-Reform dynamics with limited third-party support, underpins trader expectations that the party’s candidate will fall short of 10%. Restore Britain’s first parliamentary contest features internal canvassing claims of stronger backing, yet these contrast with independent surveys indicating modest traction amid right-wing vote splitting between Restore Britain and Reform UK. The June 18 by-election timeline leaves little room for late surges, with voter focus groups highlighting frustration channeled primarily toward the two leading parties. Traders weigh these signals as evidence that double-digit performance remains an uphill challenge in this Greater Manchester seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПромежуточные выборы в Мейкерфилде: Восстановление Британии получает 10%+?
Промежуточные выборы в Мейкерфилде: Восстановление Британии получает 10%+?
Да
$17,506 Объем
$17,506 Объем
18 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$17,506 Объем
$17,506 Объем
18 июн. 2026 г.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent constituency polling, including a Survation survey placing Restore Britain on 7% and an Opinium poll showing competitive Labour-Reform dynamics with limited third-party support, underpins trader expectations that the party’s candidate will fall short of 10%. Restore Britain’s first parliamentary contest features internal canvassing claims of stronger backing, yet these contrast with independent surveys indicating modest traction amid right-wing vote splitting between Restore Britain and Reform UK. The June 18 by-election timeline leaves little room for late surges, with voter focus groups highlighting frustration channeled primarily toward the two leading parties. Traders weigh these signals as evidence that double-digit performance remains an uphill challenge in this Greater Manchester seat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Открытие рынка: Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Объем
$17,506Дата окончания
18 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent constituency polling, including a Survation survey placing Restore Britain on 7% and an Opinium poll showing competitive Labour-Reform dynamics with limited third-party support, underpins trader expectations that the party’s candidate will fall short of 10%. Restore Britain’s first parliamentary contest features internal canvassing claims of stronger backing, yet these contrast with independent surveys indicating modest traction amid right-wing vote splitting between Restore Britain and Reform UK. The June 18 by-election timeline leaves little room for late surges, with voter focus groups highlighting frustration channeled primarily toward the two leading parties. Traders weigh these signals as evidence that double-digit performance remains an uphill challenge in this Greater Manchester seat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Объем
$17,506Дата окончания
18 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent constituency polling, including a Survation survey placing Restore Britain on 7% and an Opinium poll showing competitive Labour-Reform dynamics with limited third-party support, underpins trader expectations that the party’s candidate will fall short of 10%. Restore Britain’s first parliamentary contest features internal canvassing claims of stronger backing, yet these contrast with independent surveys indicating modest traction amid right-wing vote splitting between Restore Britain and Reform UK. The June 18 by-election timeline leaves little room for late surges, with voter focus groups highlighting frustration channeled primarily toward the two leading parties. Traders weigh these signals as evidence that double-digit performance remains an uphill challenge in this Greater Manchester seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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