Eric Pratt commands 92.5% implied probability in the MN-02 Republican primary after Tyler Kistner, a prior challenger to Rep. Angie Craig, withdrew on April 15 due to Marine Reserve activation for Pentagon duties, clearing the field for the four-term state senator from Prior Lake. With no other major Republican candidates filed as of mid-May and the August 11 primary approaching, traders view Pratt as the presumptive nominee in this suburban swing district spanning Scott, Dakota, and Le Sueur counties. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential late entrants, write-in campaigns, or unforeseen scandals, though historical patterns favor unopposed or dominant primary frontrunners securing nomination.