Robust first-quarter 2026 real GDP expansion at a 2.0 percent annualized rate—up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025—combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and major banks projecting full-year growth between 2.0 and 2.5 percent underpins the market’s 93.7 percent implied probability that annual GDP will avoid contraction. Business investment surged on AI-related equipment, government spending rebounded after the late-2025 shutdown, and consumer outlays continued expanding despite tariff headwinds. While downside risks such as sharper labor-market softening, sustained energy-price spikes, or policy-induced demand weakness could still produce two consecutive negative quarters, current leading indicators and the resilience shown since the shutdown keep recession odds low through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
$26,508 Объем
$26,508 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
Да
$26,508 Объем
$26,508 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust first-quarter 2026 real GDP expansion at a 2.0 percent annualized rate—up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025—combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and major banks projecting full-year growth between 2.0 and 2.5 percent underpins the market’s 93.7 percent implied probability that annual GDP will avoid contraction. Business investment surged on AI-related equipment, government spending rebounded after the late-2025 shutdown, and consumer outlays continued expanding despite tariff headwinds. While downside risks such as sharper labor-market softening, sustained energy-price spikes, or policy-induced demand weakness could still produce two consecutive negative quarters, current leading indicators and the resilience shown since the shutdown keep recession odds low through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$26,508Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust first-quarter 2026 real GDP expansion at a 2.0 percent annualized rate—up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025—combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and major banks projecting full-year growth between 2.0 and 2.5 percent underpins the market’s 93.7 percent implied probability that annual GDP will avoid contraction. Business investment surged on AI-related equipment, government spending rebounded after the late-2025 shutdown, and consumer outlays continued expanding despite tariff headwinds. While downside risks such as sharper labor-market softening, sustained energy-price spikes, or policy-induced demand weakness could still produce two consecutive negative quarters, current leading indicators and the resilience shown since the shutdown keep recession odds low through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$26,508Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust first-quarter 2026 real GDP expansion at a 2.0 percent annualized rate—up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025—combined with consensus forecasts from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and major banks projecting full-year growth between 2.0 and 2.5 percent underpins the market’s 93.7 percent implied probability that annual GDP will avoid contraction. Business investment surged on AI-related equipment, government spending rebounded after the late-2025 shutdown, and consumer outlays continued expanding despite tariff headwinds. While downside risks such as sharper labor-market softening, sustained energy-price spikes, or policy-induced demand weakness could still produce two consecutive negative quarters, current leading indicators and the resilience shown since the shutdown keep recession odds low through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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