Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to win the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by his fundraising advantage, long-held name recognition, and strength among the district's 34% Hispanic voters in this young, diverse Upper Manhattan and Bronx electorate. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, a DSA-endorsed democratic socialist and public defense investigator, holds 28.5% amid progressive backing from Justice Democrats and criticism of Espaillat's AIPAC ties, but her momentum from an April internal poll showing a post-messaging tie has softened following a May 3 report linking her donations to ICE protest monitors. Recent demographic analyses highlight Espaillat's edge with Hispanics offsetting Avila's potential gains with Black and white voters, underscoring an uphill path for the challenger despite high-density canvassing efforts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАдриано Эспайят 71%
Дариализа Авила Шевалье 29%
Оскар Ромеро 1.8%
Тео Чино-Таварес <1%
$22,629 Объем
$22,629 Объем
Адриано Эспайят
71%
Дариализа Авила Шевалье
29%
Оскар Ромеро
2%
Тео Чино-Таварес
<1%
Меган Родригес
<1%
Джалил Амадор
<1%
Джеймс Фелтон Кит
<1%
Мэтт Миллер
<1%
Адриано Эспайят 71%
Дариализа Авила Шевалье 29%
Оскар Ромеро 1.8%
Тео Чино-Таварес <1%
$22,629 Объем
$22,629 Объем
Адриано Эспайят
71%
Дариализа Авила Шевалье
29%
Оскар Ромеро
2%
Тео Чино-Таварес
<1%
Меган Родригес
<1%
Джалил Амадор
<1%
Джеймс Фелтон Кит
<1%
Мэтт Миллер
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to win the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by his fundraising advantage, long-held name recognition, and strength among the district's 34% Hispanic voters in this young, diverse Upper Manhattan and Bronx electorate. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, a DSA-endorsed democratic socialist and public defense investigator, holds 28.5% amid progressive backing from Justice Democrats and criticism of Espaillat's AIPAC ties, but her momentum from an April internal poll showing a post-messaging tie has softened following a May 3 report linking her donations to ICE protest monitors. Recent demographic analyses highlight Espaillat's edge with Hispanics offsetting Avila's potential gains with Black and white voters, underscoring an uphill path for the challenger despite high-density canvassing efforts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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