Trader consensus implies a 98% probability that Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will remain in office through May 31, reflecting the absence of any verified developments forcing resignation, expulsion, or other departure since an April ethics complaint referral to the Senate Ethics Committee. That probe arose from Republican allegations of misconduct linked to ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, plus separate accusations by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Gallego. No committee findings, indictments, or public actions have materialized in the past month, as Gallego actively advances legislation like the Clarity Act on cryptocurrency regulation (passed committee May 14) and veterans' benefits. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden health events, accelerated ethics outcomes prompting resignation, or a rare two-thirds Senate expulsion vote, though mid-term departures without criminal convictions remain historically uncommon.