Dusty Johnson holds the strongest position in the South Dakota Republican primary for governor, driven by his consistent lead in recent polling and advantages in name recognition and campaign resources. A late-April Mason-Dixon survey of Republican voters showed him at 34 percent, ahead of Jon Hansen at 18 percent and both Larry Rhoden and Toby Doeden at 17 percent, widening his earlier margin. The final debate on April 27 highlighted policy differences on education and Medicaid, with Johnson emphasizing performance benchmarks from other states. Rhoden’s support has declined notably since late 2025, while the June 2 primary requires 35 percent for an outright win or triggers a July runoff between the top two finishers. Traders reflect these dynamics through elevated odds on Johnson as the likely nominee.