Trump’s position as president remains stable heading into late 2026, with Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress limiting avenues for early removal. The most recent catalyst was the House vote on September 15, 2026, which tabled articles of impeachment introduced by Representative Al Green over immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP. The 232-147 tally reflected limited Democratic support, including many present votes from party leaders, and no advancement through the Judiciary Committee. With midterms scheduled for November and no scheduled constitutional processes such as a vice-presidential vacancy or incapacity proceedings underway, trader consensus assigns only a 5.5% implied probability to departure before 2027. Structural barriers, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction, further anchor expectations of continuity through the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$11,772,218 Объем
$11,772,218 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$11,772,218 Объем
$11,772,218 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s position as president remains stable heading into late 2026, with Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress limiting avenues for early removal. The most recent catalyst was the House vote on September 15, 2026, which tabled articles of impeachment introduced by Representative Al Green over immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP. The 232-147 tally reflected limited Democratic support, including many present votes from party leaders, and no advancement through the Judiciary Committee. With midterms scheduled for November and no scheduled constitutional processes such as a vice-presidential vacancy or incapacity proceedings underway, trader consensus assigns only a 5.5% implied probability to departure before 2027. Structural barriers, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction, further anchor expectations of continuity through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$11,772,218Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s position as president remains stable heading into late 2026, with Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress limiting avenues for early removal. The most recent catalyst was the House vote on September 15, 2026, which tabled articles of impeachment introduced by Representative Al Green over immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP. The 232-147 tally reflected limited Democratic support, including many present votes from party leaders, and no advancement through the Judiciary Committee. With midterms scheduled for November and no scheduled constitutional processes such as a vice-presidential vacancy or incapacity proceedings underway, trader consensus assigns only a 5.5% implied probability to departure before 2027. Structural barriers, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction, further anchor expectations of continuity through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$11,772,218Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trump’s position as president remains stable heading into late 2026, with Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress limiting avenues for early removal. The most recent catalyst was the House vote on September 15, 2026, which tabled articles of impeachment introduced by Representative Al Green over immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP. The 232-147 tally reflected limited Democratic support, including many present votes from party leaders, and no advancement through the Judiciary Committee. With midterms scheduled for November and no scheduled constitutional processes such as a vice-presidential vacancy or incapacity proceedings underway, trader consensus assigns only a 5.5% implied probability to departure before 2027. Structural barriers, including the two-thirds Senate threshold for conviction, further anchor expectations of continuity through the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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