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Политика·Прекращение огня в Иране

Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?

icon for Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?
Политика·Прекращение огня в Иране

Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$44,407,775 Объем

15 мая 2026 г.
Polymarket

$44,407,775 Объем

Polymarket

10 июня

$147,428 Объем

<1%

30 июня

$3,311,908 Объем

37%

15 июня

$1,128,909 Объем

5%

31 июля

$356,404 Объем

47%

21 июня

$108,109 Объем

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US and Iranian officials have pursued indirect negotiations since early 2026, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, focused on extending a ceasefire from the prior conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions relief. As of early June, Iranian statements emphasize preconditions including US asset releases, guarantees against future withdrawals, and linkages to Lebanon developments, while US officials describe ongoing but incomplete discussions without final approval. These dynamics, combined with procedural requirements for high-level diplomatic meetings and persistent gaps on core issues, shape trader assessments of near-term in-person or substantive bilateral engagement. Upcoming mediation efforts and any shifts in demands or military postures could influence timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$44,407,775
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US and Iranian officials have pursued indirect negotiations since early 2026, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, focused on extending a ceasefire from the prior conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions relief. As of early June, Iranian statements emphasize preconditions including US asset releases, guarantees against future withdrawals, and linkages to Lebanon developments, while US officials describe ongoing but incomplete discussions without final approval. These dynamics, combined with procedural requirements for high-level diplomatic meetings and persistent gaps on core issues, shape trader assessments of near-term in-person or substantive bilateral engagement. Upcoming mediation efforts and any shifts in demands or military postures could influence timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$44,407,775
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
May 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 28 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 июля» с 47%, за ним следует «30 июня» с 37%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 47¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $44.4 million с момента запуска рынка Apr 12, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?», просмотри 28 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» — «31 июля» с 47%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 47%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 июня» с 37%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Дипломатическая встреча США и Ирана...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.