President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a state visit and summit with Xi Jinping has passed without any US-Iran peace deal, cementing trader consensus at 100% on "No" as the market's resolution window closes. Stalled negotiations in the ongoing 2026 Iran war reached a breaking point three days ago when Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "unacceptable garbage," declaring ceasefire talks "on life support" over irreconcilable demands on sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment moratoriums, and Strait of Hormuz access. A brief two-week truce mediated by Pakistan expired in late April without broader agreement, despite earlier US proposals for a 60-day pause leading to talks. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or surprise announcements during the China trip remain theoretically possible but face significant barriers given public deadlock and historical mistrust.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМирное соглашение между США и Ираном до визита Трампа в Китай?
Мирное соглашение между США и Ираном до визита Трампа в Китай?
Да
$855,649 Объем
$855,649 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Да
$855,649 Объем
$855,649 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a state visit and summit with Xi Jinping has passed without any US-Iran peace deal, cementing trader consensus at 100% on "No" as the market's resolution window closes. Stalled negotiations in the ongoing 2026 Iran war reached a breaking point three days ago when Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "unacceptable garbage," declaring ceasefire talks "on life support" over irreconcilable demands on sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment moratoriums, and Strait of Hormuz access. A brief two-week truce mediated by Pakistan expired in late April without broader agreement, despite earlier US proposals for a 60-day pause leading to talks. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or surprise announcements during the China trip remain theoretically possible but face significant barriers given public deadlock and historical mistrust.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 5, 2026, 8:41 PM ET
Объем
$855,649Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 8:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a state visit and summit with Xi Jinping has passed without any US-Iran peace deal, cementing trader consensus at 100% on "No" as the market's resolution window closes. Stalled negotiations in the ongoing 2026 Iran war reached a breaking point three days ago when Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "unacceptable garbage," declaring ceasefire talks "on life support" over irreconcilable demands on sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment moratoriums, and Strait of Hormuz access. A brief two-week truce mediated by Pakistan expired in late April without broader agreement, despite earlier US proposals for a 60-day pause leading to talks. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or surprise announcements during the China trip remain theoretically possible but face significant barriers given public deadlock and historical mistrust.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$855,649Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 5, 2026, 8:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a state visit and summit with Xi Jinping has passed without any US-Iran peace deal, cementing trader consensus at 100% on "No" as the market's resolution window closes. Stalled negotiations in the ongoing 2026 Iran war reached a breaking point three days ago when Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "unacceptable garbage," declaring ceasefire talks "on life support" over irreconcilable demands on sanctions relief, nuclear enrichment moratoriums, and Strait of Hormuz access. A brief two-week truce mediated by Pakistan expired in late April without broader agreement, despite earlier US proposals for a 60-day pause leading to talks. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or surprise announcements during the China trip remain theoretically possible but face significant barriers given public deadlock and historical mistrust.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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