Skip to main content
icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

июн. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30

дек. 31

$1,694,033 Объем

30 июн. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$1,694,033 Объем

Polymarket
icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$449,433 Объем

1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$12,315 Объем

1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$19,625 Объем

<1%

icon for Meta

Meta

$27,984 Объем

<1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$5,317 Объем

<1%

icon for xAI

xAI

$587,192 Объем

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$15,657 Объем

<1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$20,914 Объем

<1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$10,181 Объем

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$287,445 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Fable 5 has propelled its models—Fable 5, Opus 4.8, and Mythos variants—to the top of most June 2026 leaderboards, including composite quality indexes and agentic coding benchmarks, establishing a clear edge over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro and Thinking variants sit immediately behind on reasoning and general tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.5 Flash lead select math or efficiency metrics but trail overall. With only days remaining until June 30 resolution and no major launches announced, trader sentiment centers on whether incremental updates or benchmark shifts can unseat Anthropic’s current lead before the cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$1,694,033
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Fable 5 has propelled its models—Fable 5, Opus 4.8, and Mythos variants—to the top of most June 2026 leaderboards, including composite quality indexes and agentic coding benchmarks, establishing a clear edge over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro and Thinking variants sit immediately behind on reasoning and general tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.5 Flash lead select math or efficiency metrics but trail overall. With only days remaining until June 30 resolution and no major launches announced, trader sentiment centers on whether incremental updates or benchmark shifts can unseat Anthropic’s current lead before the cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$1,694,033
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 11 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Anthropic» с 100%, за ним следует «OpenAI» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.7 million с момента запуска рынка Dec 22, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?», просмотри 11 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?» — «Anthropic» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «OpenAI» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.