Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$144,507 Объем
$144,507 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$144,507 Объем
$144,507 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$144,507Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$144,507Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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