Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including a fragile US-mediated ceasefire strained by Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli targets in mid-May and continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, have reinforced traders' strong consensus against any embassy reopening by December 2026. Diplomatic ties remain severed since Iran's 1979 revolution, with no normalization signals amid stalled nuclear and truce talks marked by mutual distrust, including Iran's foreign minister citing contradictory US messages as a key barrier. Recent extensions of the April ceasefire and ongoing military operations in the region underscore structural barriers, such as Iran's nuclear program demands and proxy conflicts, that would require improbable breakthroughs like full de-escalation or regime shifts for any reversal of the current 91.5 percent implied probability for no reopening.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОткроет ли Израиль свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Откроет ли Израиль свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
$51,779 Объем
$51,779 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$51,779 Объем
$51,779 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including a fragile US-mediated ceasefire strained by Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli targets in mid-May and continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, have reinforced traders' strong consensus against any embassy reopening by December 2026. Diplomatic ties remain severed since Iran's 1979 revolution, with no normalization signals amid stalled nuclear and truce talks marked by mutual distrust, including Iran's foreign minister citing contradictory US messages as a key barrier. Recent extensions of the April ceasefire and ongoing military operations in the region underscore structural barriers, such as Iran's nuclear program demands and proxy conflicts, that would require improbable breakthroughs like full de-escalation or regime shifts for any reversal of the current 91.5 percent implied probability for no reopening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Объем
$51,779Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including a fragile US-mediated ceasefire strained by Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli targets in mid-May and continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, have reinforced traders' strong consensus against any embassy reopening by December 2026. Diplomatic ties remain severed since Iran's 1979 revolution, with no normalization signals amid stalled nuclear and truce talks marked by mutual distrust, including Iran's foreign minister citing contradictory US messages as a key barrier. Recent extensions of the April ceasefire and ongoing military operations in the region underscore structural barriers, such as Iran's nuclear program demands and proxy conflicts, that would require improbable breakthroughs like full de-escalation or regime shifts for any reversal of the current 91.5 percent implied probability for no reopening.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$51,779Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including a fragile US-mediated ceasefire strained by Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli targets in mid-May and continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, have reinforced traders' strong consensus against any embassy reopening by December 2026. Diplomatic ties remain severed since Iran's 1979 revolution, with no normalization signals amid stalled nuclear and truce talks marked by mutual distrust, including Iran's foreign minister citing contradictory US messages as a key barrier. Recent extensions of the April ceasefire and ongoing military operations in the region underscore structural barriers, such as Iran's nuclear program demands and proxy conflicts, that would require improbable breakthroughs like full de-escalation or regime shifts for any reversal of the current 91.5 percent implied probability for no reopening.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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