The market's strong 95% implied probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the absence of any such event in the instrumental record and the physical constraints on maximum earthquake size. The largest reliably measured quake reached only 9.5 during Chile's 1960 Valdivia event, which involved an enormous subduction-zone rupture. USGS seismic data confirm that even the most active plate boundaries rarely exceed magnitude 9.0, as fault mechanics, rock strength, and stress accumulation limit simultaneous slip across the vast areas required for a 10.0 event. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes span centuries, rendering any occurrence within the brief remaining window through 2026 highly improbable. Only an unforeseen, multi-fault cascade across several major plate boundaries could alter this outlook, though current monitoring shows no precursors approaching that scale.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
$602,575 ปริมาณ
$602,575 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$602,575 ปริมาณ
$602,575 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong 95% implied probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the absence of any such event in the instrumental record and the physical constraints on maximum earthquake size. The largest reliably measured quake reached only 9.5 during Chile's 1960 Valdivia event, which involved an enormous subduction-zone rupture. USGS seismic data confirm that even the most active plate boundaries rarely exceed magnitude 9.0, as fault mechanics, rock strength, and stress accumulation limit simultaneous slip across the vast areas required for a 10.0 event. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes span centuries, rendering any occurrence within the brief remaining window through 2026 highly improbable. Only an unforeseen, multi-fault cascade across several major plate boundaries could alter this outlook, though current monitoring shows no precursors approaching that scale.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$602,575วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong 95% implied probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the absence of any such event in the instrumental record and the physical constraints on maximum earthquake size. The largest reliably measured quake reached only 9.5 during Chile's 1960 Valdivia event, which involved an enormous subduction-zone rupture. USGS seismic data confirm that even the most active plate boundaries rarely exceed magnitude 9.0, as fault mechanics, rock strength, and stress accumulation limit simultaneous slip across the vast areas required for a 10.0 event. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes span centuries, rendering any occurrence within the brief remaining window through 2026 highly improbable. Only an unforeseen, multi-fault cascade across several major plate boundaries could alter this outlook, though current monitoring shows no precursors approaching that scale.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$602,575วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's strong 95% implied probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the absence of any such event in the instrumental record and the physical constraints on maximum earthquake size. The largest reliably measured quake reached only 9.5 during Chile's 1960 Valdivia event, which involved an enormous subduction-zone rupture. USGS seismic data confirm that even the most active plate boundaries rarely exceed magnitude 9.0, as fault mechanics, rock strength, and stress accumulation limit simultaneous slip across the vast areas required for a 10.0 event. Historical recurrence intervals for great earthquakes span centuries, rendering any occurrence within the brief remaining window through 2026 highly improbable. Only an unforeseen, multi-fault cascade across several major plate boundaries could alter this outlook, though current monitoring shows no precursors approaching that scale.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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