Recent polling for Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke fluctuating between 18% and 22% across major institutes, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys placing the party at or just above 20% while dawum's trend average sits at 19.8%. This narrow band around the threshold underpins the 59.5% trader-implied probability for an under-20% finish, reflecting uncertainty over final-week turnout among left-leaning voters and competition from the CDU, AfD, and Greens. No single dominant catalyst has emerged in the past month to push the party decisively higher or lower, though modest gains in some mid-July to early-August surveys coincided with emphasis on housing affordability. Resolution hinges on official results after election night, with historical precedent indicating small polling errors can decide outcomes near 20%.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOver
41% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Over
41% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke fluctuating between 18% and 22% across major institutes, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys placing the party at or just above 20% while dawum's trend average sits at 19.8%. This narrow band around the threshold underpins the 59.5% trader-implied probability for an under-20% finish, reflecting uncertainty over final-week turnout among left-leaning voters and competition from the CDU, AfD, and Greens. No single dominant catalyst has emerged in the past month to push the party decisively higher or lower, though modest gains in some mid-July to early-August surveys coincided with emphasis on housing affordability. Resolution hinges on official results after election night, with historical precedent indicating small polling errors can decide outcomes near 20%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,352วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke fluctuating between 18% and 22% across major institutes, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys placing the party at or just above 20% while dawum's trend average sits at 19.8%. This narrow band around the threshold underpins the 59.5% trader-implied probability for an under-20% finish, reflecting uncertainty over final-week turnout among left-leaning voters and competition from the CDU, AfD, and Greens. No single dominant catalyst has emerged in the past month to push the party decisively higher or lower, though modest gains in some mid-July to early-August surveys coincided with emphasis on housing affordability. Resolution hinges on official results after election night, with historical precedent indicating small polling errors can decide outcomes near 20%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,352วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Die Linke fluctuating between 18% and 22% across major institutes, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys placing the party at or just above 20% while dawum's trend average sits at 19.8%. This narrow band around the threshold underpins the 59.5% trader-implied probability for an under-20% finish, reflecting uncertainty over final-week turnout among left-leaning voters and competition from the CDU, AfD, and Greens. No single dominant catalyst has emerged in the past month to push the party decisively higher or lower, though modest gains in some mid-July to early-August surveys coincided with emphasis on housing affordability. Resolution hinges on official results after election night, with historical precedent indicating small polling errors can decide outcomes near 20%.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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