Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the overwhelming 95.2% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max as the leading AI model. The update delivers near-frontier performance on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld evaluations—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks—while using adaptive reasoning, a 1M-token context window, and the same $5/$25 pricing as Opus 4.8. It quickly became the default on Claude Max and the strongest option on Pro plans, reflecting strong developer adoption and benchmark gains over prior Opus versions. Realistic challenges remain limited but include a major competitive release from OpenAI or Google, or new evaluations revealing gaps on specialized domains such as cybersecurity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-opus-5-max 95.2%
claude-opus-5-high 3.0%
Other 1.4%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$35,286 ปริมาณ
$35,286 ปริมาณ
Aug 17, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
95%
claude-opus-5-high
3%
Other
1%
claude-opus-4-6
1%
claude-fable-5
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
<1%
claude-opus-5-max 95.2%
claude-opus-5-high 3.0%
Other 1.4%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$35,286 ปริมาณ
$35,286 ปริมาณ
Aug 17, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$19,603 ปริมาณ
95%
claude-opus-5-high
$2,222 ปริมาณ
3%
Other
$2,463 ปริมาณ
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,243 ปริมาณ
1%
claude-fable-5
$3,043 ปริมาณ
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$6,713 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the overwhelming 95.2% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max as the leading AI model. The update delivers near-frontier performance on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld evaluations—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks—while using adaptive reasoning, a 1M-token context window, and the same $5/$25 pricing as Opus 4.8. It quickly became the default on Claude Max and the strongest option on Pro plans, reflecting strong developer adoption and benchmark gains over prior Opus versions. Realistic challenges remain limited but include a major competitive release from OpenAI or Google, or new evaluations revealing gaps on specialized domains such as cybersecurity.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,286วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the overwhelming 95.2% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max as the leading AI model. The update delivers near-frontier performance on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld evaluations—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks—while using adaptive reasoning, a 1M-token context window, and the same $5/$25 pricing as Opus 4.8. It quickly became the default on Claude Max and the strongest option on Pro plans, reflecting strong developer adoption and benchmark gains over prior Opus versions. Realistic challenges remain limited but include a major competitive release from OpenAI or Google, or new evaluations revealing gaps on specialized domains such as cybersecurity.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,286วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the overwhelming 95.2% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max as the leading AI model. The update delivers near-frontier performance on Frontier-Bench, CursorBench, and OSWorld evaluations—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 on agentic coding and long-horizon tasks—while using adaptive reasoning, a 1M-token context window, and the same $5/$25 pricing as Opus 4.8. It quickly became the default on Claude Max and the strongest option on Pro plans, reflecting strong developer adoption and benchmark gains over prior Opus versions. Realistic challenges remain limited but include a major competitive release from OpenAI or Google, or new evaluations revealing gaps on specialized domains such as cybersecurity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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