Democrats hold a consistent 7- to 9-point lead on the generic congressional ballot in recent polls, with Trump’s approval ratings in the mid-30s amid economic concerns. Forecasters project the party will likely regain the House majority and have a solid chance at Senate control through gains in states such as Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. These trends align with historical midterm patterns for the president’s party but point to seat shifts of roughly 15–30 in the House rather than an extreme landslide. Uncertainty over polling accuracy, turnout, and the precise scale of any Democratic gains keeps trader consensus heavily against a “mega-tsunami” outcome.