In California's 38th congressional district, the November general election pits Democrat Hilda Solis against Republican Pedro Antonio Casas following the June top-two primary. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Partisan Voting Index ratings around D+8 to D+10 and consistent handicapper assessments as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader pricing on wide victory margins for the Democratic nominee. Solis benefits from prior congressional service, state party endorsement, and fundraising advantages in this open seat redrawn across Los Angeles and Orange counties, while Casas represents the main opposition in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. With roughly two months until Election Day, factors such as turnout among no-party-preference voters, national midterm dynamics, and localized campaign spending could narrow or widen the final margin, keeping multiple bracket outcomes competitive in the current market consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican Wins 43%
Democrat 25-30% 42%
Democrat 20-25% 42%
Democrat 10-15% 42%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
39%
Democrat 25-30%
42%
Democrat 20-25%
42%
Democrat 15-20%
39%
Democrat 10-15%
42%
Democrat 5-10%
39%
Democrat 0-5%
39%
Republican Wins
43%
Republican Wins 43%
Democrat 25-30% 42%
Democrat 20-25% 42%
Democrat 10-15% 42%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Republican Wins
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 38th congressional district, the November general election pits Democrat Hilda Solis against Republican Pedro Antonio Casas following the June top-two primary. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Partisan Voting Index ratings around D+8 to D+10 and consistent handicapper assessments as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader pricing on wide victory margins for the Democratic nominee. Solis benefits from prior congressional service, state party endorsement, and fundraising advantages in this open seat redrawn across Los Angeles and Orange counties, while Casas represents the main opposition in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. With roughly two months until Election Day, factors such as turnout among no-party-preference voters, national midterm dynamics, and localized campaign spending could narrow or widen the final margin, keeping multiple bracket outcomes competitive in the current market consensus.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 38th congressional district, the November general election pits Democrat Hilda Solis against Republican Pedro Antonio Casas following the June top-two primary. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Partisan Voting Index ratings around D+8 to D+10 and consistent handicapper assessments as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader pricing on wide victory margins for the Democratic nominee. Solis benefits from prior congressional service, state party endorsement, and fundraising advantages in this open seat redrawn across Los Angeles and Orange counties, while Casas represents the main opposition in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. With roughly two months until Election Day, factors such as turnout among no-party-preference voters, national midterm dynamics, and localized campaign spending could narrow or widen the final margin, keeping multiple bracket outcomes competitive in the current market consensus.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...In California's 38th congressional district, the November general election pits Democrat Hilda Solis against Republican Pedro Antonio Casas following the June top-two primary. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Partisan Voting Index ratings around D+8 to D+10 and consistent handicapper assessments as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader pricing on wide victory margins for the Democratic nominee. Solis benefits from prior congressional service, state party endorsement, and fundraising advantages in this open seat redrawn across Los Angeles and Orange counties, while Casas represents the main opposition in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. With roughly two months until Election Day, factors such as turnout among no-party-preference voters, national midterm dynamics, and localized campaign spending could narrow or widen the final margin, keeping multiple bracket outcomes competitive in the current market consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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