The split between right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has prevented consolidation of conservative votes ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, leaving Iván Cepeda Castro with a projected lead in the mid-to-high 30s according to recent surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo. Cepeda’s consolidation among left-leaning and younger voters, backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s machinery, supports his current positioning, yet the absence of a unified challenger and roughly 15 percent undecided voters keep the expected margin clustered between 5 and 15 points. Recent polling volatility and campaign missteps on the right have reinforced trader consensus around these narrower victory bands rather than a decisive first-round separation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.3%
$15,004 ปริมาณ
$15,004 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
13%
de la Espriella Win
15%
Valencia Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.3%
$15,004 ปริมาณ
$15,004 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,822 ปริมาณ
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 ปริมาณ
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,132 ปริมาณ
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,123 ปริมาณ
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,259 ปริมาณ
13%
de la Espriella Win
$4,118 ปริมาณ
15%
Valencia Win
$2,270 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$2,066 ปริมาณ
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The split between right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has prevented consolidation of conservative votes ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, leaving Iván Cepeda Castro with a projected lead in the mid-to-high 30s according to recent surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo. Cepeda’s consolidation among left-leaning and younger voters, backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s machinery, supports his current positioning, yet the absence of a unified challenger and roughly 15 percent undecided voters keep the expected margin clustered between 5 and 15 points. Recent polling volatility and campaign missteps on the right have reinforced trader consensus around these narrower victory bands rather than a decisive first-round separation.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,004วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The split between right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has prevented consolidation of conservative votes ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, leaving Iván Cepeda Castro with a projected lead in the mid-to-high 30s according to recent surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo. Cepeda’s consolidation among left-leaning and younger voters, backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s machinery, supports his current positioning, yet the absence of a unified challenger and roughly 15 percent undecided voters keep the expected margin clustered between 5 and 15 points. Recent polling volatility and campaign missteps on the right have reinforced trader consensus around these narrower victory bands rather than a decisive first-round separation.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,004วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The split between right-wing contenders Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia has prevented consolidation of conservative votes ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, leaving Iván Cepeda Castro with a projected lead in the mid-to-high 30s according to recent surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo. Cepeda’s consolidation among left-leaning and younger voters, backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s machinery, supports his current positioning, yet the absence of a unified challenger and roughly 15 percent undecided voters keep the expected margin clustered between 5 and 15 points. Recent polling volatility and campaign missteps on the right have reinforced trader consensus around these narrower victory bands rather than a decisive first-round separation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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