Traders have anchored the 40-64 tweet range at 51% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 10–12 window because recent daily counts have clustered in the mid-teens to low-20s, producing a three-day total squarely inside that band even on a weekend stretch. Kaggle-tracked activity from early August shows 14–24 posts per day, consistent with his established rhythm of commentary on Starlink revenue projections, SpaceX milestones, and AI topics absent major breaking news or product launches. The 65–89 bracket at 23.5% captures any uptick from platform-related chatter or replies, while sub-40 remains competitive only if activity stays suppressed. With no scheduled high-profile events or controversies expected to drive surges, the market reflects Musk’s baseline cadence rather than outlier spikes seen in busier weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว40-64 53%
65-89 23%
<40 21%
90-114 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
<40
21%
40-64
53%
65-89
23%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 53%
65-89 23%
<40 21%
90-114 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
<40
$76 ปริมาณ
21%
40-64
$132 ปริมาณ
53%
65-89
$1,112 ปริมาณ
23%
90-114
$258 ปริมาณ
5%
115-139
$80 ปริมาณ
1%
140-164
$582 ปริมาณ
<1%
165-189
$597 ปริมาณ
<1%
190-214
$129 ปริมาณ
<1%
215-239
$126 ปริมาณ
<1%
240+
$338 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have anchored the 40-64 tweet range at 51% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 10–12 window because recent daily counts have clustered in the mid-teens to low-20s, producing a three-day total squarely inside that band even on a weekend stretch. Kaggle-tracked activity from early August shows 14–24 posts per day, consistent with his established rhythm of commentary on Starlink revenue projections, SpaceX milestones, and AI topics absent major breaking news or product launches. The 65–89 bracket at 23.5% captures any uptick from platform-related chatter or replies, while sub-40 remains competitive only if activity stays suppressed. With no scheduled high-profile events or controversies expected to drive surges, the market reflects Musk’s baseline cadence rather than outlier spikes seen in busier weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,428วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have anchored the 40-64 tweet range at 51% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 10–12 window because recent daily counts have clustered in the mid-teens to low-20s, producing a three-day total squarely inside that band even on a weekend stretch. Kaggle-tracked activity from early August shows 14–24 posts per day, consistent with his established rhythm of commentary on Starlink revenue projections, SpaceX milestones, and AI topics absent major breaking news or product launches. The 65–89 bracket at 23.5% captures any uptick from platform-related chatter or replies, while sub-40 remains competitive only if activity stays suppressed. With no scheduled high-profile events or controversies expected to drive surges, the market reflects Musk’s baseline cadence rather than outlier spikes seen in busier weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,428วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have anchored the 40-64 tweet range at 51% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 10–12 window because recent daily counts have clustered in the mid-teens to low-20s, producing a three-day total squarely inside that band even on a weekend stretch. Kaggle-tracked activity from early August shows 14–24 posts per day, consistent with his established rhythm of commentary on Starlink revenue projections, SpaceX milestones, and AI topics absent major breaking news or product launches. The 65–89 bracket at 23.5% captures any uptick from platform-related chatter or replies, while sub-40 remains competitive only if activity stays suppressed. With no scheduled high-profile events or controversies expected to drive surges, the market reflects Musk’s baseline cadence rather than outlier spikes seen in busier weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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