The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGalway-West By-Election Winner?
Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Noel Thomas 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%
$47,329 ปริมาณ
$47,329 ปริมาณ
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
31%
Niall Murphy
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
9%
Orla Nugent
1%
Helen Ogbu
4%
Denman Rooke
1%
Noel Thomas
47%
Thomas Welby
<1%
Mike Cubbard
10%
Mark Lohan
4%
Noel Thomas 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.0%
$47,329 ปริมาณ
$47,329 ปริมาณ
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
31%
Niall Murphy
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
9%
Orla Nugent
1%
Helen Ogbu
4%
Denman Rooke
1%
Noel Thomas
47%
Thomas Welby
<1%
Mike Cubbard
10%
Mark Lohan
4%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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