Recent forecasts from China's meteorological authorities indicate that subtropical high pressure, which drove peak readings near 39–40°C on August 26, will weaken over Chongqing by August 28 as moisture and easterly flow from typhoon remnants increase cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms. This shift favors reduced daytime insolation and enhanced evaporative cooling, with official guidance pointing to a center-city high near 37°C amid 22–38°C ranges and localized heavy rain. International models diverge modestly, projecting 33–36°C depending on storm timing and coverage. The resulting uncertainty over exact cloud thickness, rainfall onset, and boundary-layer mixing explains the evenly matched market-implied probabilities across thresholds, as traders weigh these variables against typical late-August climatology of 31–35°C highs.