Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a transitional high-pressure regime over eastern Japan on August 26, with morning sunshine giving way to increasing afternoon cloud cover and a 20-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. This setup favors a peak temperature near 34°C at the Tokyo official station, as daytime heating is moderated by rising humidity, southerly flow, and scattered convection that limits full insolation. Recent observations show Tokyo reached 35°C on the 25th under clearer conditions, but the expected increase in cloudiness and potential sea-breeze effects differentiate the 34°C and 35°C scenarios most strongly, while lower probabilities for 33°C or 36°C+ reflect uncertainty in exact storm timing and urban heat retention. Updated model runs later today will refine the afternoon convective outlook ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
34°C 38%
35°C 29%
33°C 13%
36°C 12%
ใหม่
$12,351 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,351 ปริมาณ
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
13%
34°C
38%
35°C
29%
36°C
12%
37°C
5%
38°C or higher
1%
34°C 38%
35°C 29%
33°C 13%
36°C 12%
ใหม่
$12,351 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,351 ปริมาณ
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
$1,354 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$1,454 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$843 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$440 ปริมาณ
2%
32°C
$279 ปริมาณ
4%
33°C
$333 ปริมาณ
13%
34°C
$1,137 ปริมาณ
38%
35°C
$938 ปริมาณ
29%
36°C
$1,300 ปริมาณ
12%
37°C
$417 ปริมาณ
5%
38°C or higher
$3,858 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a transitional high-pressure regime over eastern Japan on August 26, with morning sunshine giving way to increasing afternoon cloud cover and a 20-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. This setup favors a peak temperature near 34°C at the Tokyo official station, as daytime heating is moderated by rising humidity, southerly flow, and scattered convection that limits full insolation. Recent observations show Tokyo reached 35°C on the 25th under clearer conditions, but the expected increase in cloudiness and potential sea-breeze effects differentiate the 34°C and 35°C scenarios most strongly, while lower probabilities for 33°C or 36°C+ reflect uncertainty in exact storm timing and urban heat retention. Updated model runs later today will refine the afternoon convective outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,351วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a transitional high-pressure regime over eastern Japan on August 26, with morning sunshine giving way to increasing afternoon cloud cover and a 20-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. This setup favors a peak temperature near 34°C at the Tokyo official station, as daytime heating is moderated by rising humidity, southerly flow, and scattered convection that limits full insolation. Recent observations show Tokyo reached 35°C on the 25th under clearer conditions, but the expected increase in cloudiness and potential sea-breeze effects differentiate the 34°C and 35°C scenarios most strongly, while lower probabilities for 33°C or 36°C+ reflect uncertainty in exact storm timing and urban heat retention. Updated model runs later today will refine the afternoon convective outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,351วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate a transitional high-pressure regime over eastern Japan on August 26, with morning sunshine giving way to increasing afternoon cloud cover and a 20-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. This setup favors a peak temperature near 34°C at the Tokyo official station, as daytime heating is moderated by rising humidity, southerly flow, and scattered convection that limits full insolation. Recent observations show Tokyo reached 35°C on the 25th under clearer conditions, but the expected increase in cloudiness and potential sea-breeze effects differentiate the 34°C and 35°C scenarios most strongly, while lower probabilities for 33°C or 36°C+ reflect uncertainty in exact storm timing and urban heat retention. Updated model runs later today will refine the afternoon convective outlook ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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