Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 18?
21°C 32%
22°C 30%
20°C 16%
23°C or higher 12.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
16%
21°C
32%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
13%
21°C 32%
22°C 30%
20°C 16%
23°C or higher 12.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$589 ปริมาณ
<1%
14°C
$829 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$1,124 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$800 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$1,704 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$1,212 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$973 ปริมาณ
5%
20°C
$442 ปริมาณ
16%
21°C
$510 ปริมาณ
32%
22°C
$402 ปริมาณ
30%
23°C or higher
$1,371 ปริมาณ
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,760วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,760วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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