Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 7, 2026, near the long-term average of 70°F, supported by onshore flow and marine layer influence that typically moderates temperatures along the coast. Trader emphasis on the 88°F-or-higher outcome at 50% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in longer-range guidance regarding potential offshore flow or transient warm advection that could produce rare late-summer heat, consistent with historical extremes reaching 91°F on the date. Mid-range bins around 70–87°F each carry 25% odds, capturing the spread across deterministic runs, while the sub-70°F outcome remains a low-probability tail. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine whether conditions trend warmer than baseline or remain suppressed by the Pacific high.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
76-77°F 36%
78-79°F 36%
74-75°F 23%
82-83°F 23%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 7, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
36%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
23%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
7%
88°F or higher
7%
76-77°F 36%
78-79°F 36%
74-75°F 23%
82-83°F 23%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 7, 2026
69°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
23%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
78-79°F
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
80-81°F
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
82-83°F
$0 ปริมาณ
23%
84-85°F
$0 ปริมาณ
20%
86-87°F
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
88°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 7, 2026, near the long-term average of 70°F, supported by onshore flow and marine layer influence that typically moderates temperatures along the coast. Trader emphasis on the 88°F-or-higher outcome at 50% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in longer-range guidance regarding potential offshore flow or transient warm advection that could produce rare late-summer heat, consistent with historical extremes reaching 91°F on the date. Mid-range bins around 70–87°F each carry 25% odds, capturing the spread across deterministic runs, while the sub-70°F outcome remains a low-probability tail. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine whether conditions trend warmer than baseline or remain suppressed by the Pacific high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 5, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 5, 2026, 7:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 7, 2026, near the long-term average of 70°F, supported by onshore flow and marine layer influence that typically moderates temperatures along the coast. Trader emphasis on the 88°F-or-higher outcome at 50% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in longer-range guidance regarding potential offshore flow or transient warm advection that could produce rare late-summer heat, consistent with historical extremes reaching 91°F on the date. Mid-range bins around 70–87°F each carry 25% odds, capturing the spread across deterministic runs, while the sub-70°F outcome remains a low-probability tail. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine whether conditions trend warmer than baseline or remain suppressed by the Pacific high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 5, 2026, 7:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs in the mid-70s Fahrenheit for September 7, 2026, near the long-term average of 70°F, supported by onshore flow and marine layer influence that typically moderates temperatures along the coast. Trader emphasis on the 88°F-or-higher outcome at 50% implied probability likely reflects uncertainty in longer-range guidance regarding potential offshore flow or transient warm advection that could produce rare late-summer heat, consistent with historical extremes reaching 91°F on the date. Mid-range bins around 70–87°F each carry 25% odds, capturing the spread across deterministic runs, while the sub-70°F outcome remains a low-probability tail. Updated model cycles and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine whether conditions trend warmer than baseline or remain suppressed by the Pacific high.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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