**Current short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C on September 5, with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, and west-southwest winds of 3–5 Beaufort.** These conditions favor the market’s leading outcomes at 31°C (48.5%) and 30°C (29.5%), as afternoon insolation under broken cloud can reach the upper end of the range while showers and higher humidity (70–95%) temper further warming. Broader context includes an emerging strong El Niño, which the Observatory’s September outlook links to normal-to-above-normal temperatures across the month, and recent tropical-cyclone remnants that have kept early-September readings close to the 29–31°C climatological envelope without extreme excursions. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day spread, with the main uncertainty tied to exact timing of any convective cloud; fresh HKO updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
31°C 48%
30°C 30%
29°C 16%
32°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
16%
30°C
30%
31°C
48%
32°C
9%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 48%
30°C 30%
29°C 16%
32°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
$75 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$75 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$115 ปริมาณ
2%
29°C
$105 ปริมาณ
16%
30°C
$100 ปริมาณ
30%
31°C
$1,052 ปริมาณ
48%
32°C
$149 ปริมาณ
9%
33°C
$133 ปริมาณ
2%
34°C or higher
$75 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C on September 5, with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, and west-southwest winds of 3–5 Beaufort.** These conditions favor the market’s leading outcomes at 31°C (48.5%) and 30°C (29.5%), as afternoon insolation under broken cloud can reach the upper end of the range while showers and higher humidity (70–95%) temper further warming.
Broader context includes an emerging strong El Niño, which the Observatory’s September outlook links to normal-to-above-normal temperatures across the month, and recent tropical-cyclone remnants that have kept early-September readings close to the 29–31°C climatological envelope without extreme excursions. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day spread, with the main uncertainty tied to exact timing of any convective cloud; fresh HKO updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,880วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C on September 5, with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, and west-southwest winds of 3–5 Beaufort.** These conditions favor the market’s leading outcomes at 31°C (48.5%) and 30°C (29.5%), as afternoon insolation under broken cloud can reach the upper end of the range while showers and higher humidity (70–95%) temper further warming.
Broader context includes an emerging strong El Niño, which the Observatory’s September outlook links to normal-to-above-normal temperatures across the month, and recent tropical-cyclone remnants that have kept early-September readings close to the 29–31°C climatological envelope without extreme excursions. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day spread, with the main uncertainty tied to exact timing of any convective cloud; fresh HKO updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,880วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C on September 5, with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, and west-southwest winds of 3–5 Beaufort.** These conditions favor the market’s leading outcomes at 31°C (48.5%) and 30°C (29.5%), as afternoon insolation under broken cloud can reach the upper end of the range while showers and higher humidity (70–95%) temper further warming. Broader context includes an emerging strong El Niño, which the Observatory’s September outlook links to normal-to-above-normal temperatures across the month, and recent tropical-cyclone remnants that have kept early-September readings close to the 29–31°C climatological envelope without extreme excursions. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day spread, with the main uncertainty tied to exact timing of any convective cloud; fresh HKO updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย