**Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover plus widespread rain are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Multiple forecast models, including those from PAGASA-influenced sources and global ensembles, indicate a September 3 high near 29–30 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, consistent with climatological norms for the peak rainy season when solar insolation is reduced. High humidity and southwesterly flow further limit temperature extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and suppressing boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied odds favoring 31–32 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in short-range model runs, historical September maxima near 30–31 °C, and the possibility of brief clearing that could allow modest additional warming. Traders appear to assign lower weight to cooler outcomes below 29 °C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or atypical monsoon suppression this early in the month. Updated model guidance and official PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Manila on September 3?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 3?
31°C 37%
32°C 22%
30°C 16%
29°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
16%
31°C
37%
32°C
22%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 37%
32°C 22%
30°C 16%
29°C 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
$38 ปริมาณ
1%
26°C
$102 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$12 ปริมาณ
3%
28°C
$96 ปริมาณ
3%
29°C
$51 ปริมาณ
8%
30°C
$869 ปริมาณ
16%
31°C
$86 ปริมาณ
37%
32°C
$166 ปริมาณ
22%
33°C
$283 ปริมาณ
4%
34°C
$176 ปริมาณ
2%
35°C or higher
$112 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover plus widespread rain are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Multiple forecast models, including those from PAGASA-influenced sources and global ensembles, indicate a September 3 high near 29–30 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, consistent with climatological norms for the peak rainy season when solar insolation is reduced. High humidity and southwesterly flow further limit temperature extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and suppressing boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied odds favoring 31–32 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in short-range model runs, historical September maxima near 30–31 °C, and the possibility of brief clearing that could allow modest additional warming. Traders appear to assign lower weight to cooler outcomes below 29 °C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or atypical monsoon suppression this early in the month. Updated model guidance and official PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,992วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover plus widespread rain are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Multiple forecast models, including those from PAGASA-influenced sources and global ensembles, indicate a September 3 high near 29–30 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, consistent with climatological norms for the peak rainy season when solar insolation is reduced. High humidity and southwesterly flow further limit temperature extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and suppressing boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied odds favoring 31–32 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in short-range model runs, historical September maxima near 30–31 °C, and the possibility of brief clearing that could allow modest additional warming. Traders appear to assign lower weight to cooler outcomes below 29 °C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or atypical monsoon suppression this early in the month. Updated model guidance and official PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,992วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Recent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover plus widespread rain are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila.** Multiple forecast models, including those from PAGASA-influenced sources and global ensembles, indicate a September 3 high near 29–30 °C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, consistent with climatological norms for the peak rainy season when solar insolation is reduced. High humidity and southwesterly flow further limit temperature extremes by enhancing evaporative cooling and suppressing boundary-layer mixing. Market-implied odds favoring 31–32 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in short-range model runs, historical September maxima near 30–31 °C, and the possibility of brief clearing that could allow modest additional warming. Traders appear to assign lower weight to cooler outcomes below 29 °C given the absence of strong cold-air advection or atypical monsoon suppression this early in the month. Updated model guidance and official PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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