**Short-term forecasts for Seoul point to a July 20 high near 28°C as the most likely outcome, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 26–29°C.** Persistent monsoon (Changma) influences are delivering widespread cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating, keeping maximum temperatures from climbing much above the seasonal norm of roughly 27–30°C. Model consensus from agencies such as the Korea Meteorological Administration highlights modest variability tied to the exact timing and coverage of rain, which can suppress peaks by 1–2°C on overcast days or allow brief clearing that pushes readings toward 29°C. Historical July data show similar conditions produce daily highs averaging near 28°C with a standard deviation of about 2°C. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow spread between 27°C and 29°C most heavily, while awaiting the next official model runs that will refine precipitation and insolation details before resolution.