**Forecast consensus points to a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 18, 2026, with 24°C as the most probable outcome under mostly cloudy skies and northerly flow.** Multiple model runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international forecasters show daytime maxima clustered around 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle in places, and northerly winds associated with a developing tropical depression or typhoon passing south of the main islands. These conditions suppress surface heating compared with seasonal norms of 26–28°C. Recent observations confirm the pattern: September 16–17 featured rain-cooled air masses and northerly flow that kept highs near 23°C, setting up similar steering and thermal profiles for the 18th. Market-implied probabilities—24°C at 43%, 25°C at 23.5%, and 23°C at 22.5%—closely track this narrow forecast envelope. Minor model spread on exact wind strength or timing of any clearing could nudge the peak by 1°C, but no strong warming signals have emerged. Updated JMA and global model runs on the 17th–18th will provide the next key data points before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
24°C 44%
25°C 24%
23°C 22%
22°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
22%
24°C
44%
25°C
24%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 44%
25°C 24%
23°C 22%
22°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
$399 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$340 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$263 ปริมาณ
2%
22°C
$356 ปริมาณ
5%
23°C
$1,888 ปริมาณ
22%
24°C
$812 ปริมาณ
44%
25°C
$1,345 ปริมาณ
24%
26°C
$457 ปริมาณ
5%
27°C
$318 ปริมาณ
2%
28°C
$278 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C or higher
$572 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 18, 2026, with 24°C as the most probable outcome under mostly cloudy skies and northerly flow.**
Multiple model runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international forecasters show daytime maxima clustered around 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle in places, and northerly winds associated with a developing tropical depression or typhoon passing south of the main islands. These conditions suppress surface heating compared with seasonal norms of 26–28°C. Recent observations confirm the pattern: September 16–17 featured rain-cooled air masses and northerly flow that kept highs near 23°C, setting up similar steering and thermal profiles for the 18th.
Market-implied probabilities—24°C at 43%, 25°C at 23.5%, and 23°C at 22.5%—closely track this narrow forecast envelope. Minor model spread on exact wind strength or timing of any clearing could nudge the peak by 1°C, but no strong warming signals have emerged. Updated JMA and global model runs on the 17th–18th will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,026วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 18, 2026, with 24°C as the most probable outcome under mostly cloudy skies and northerly flow.**
Multiple model runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international forecasters show daytime maxima clustered around 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle in places, and northerly winds associated with a developing tropical depression or typhoon passing south of the main islands. These conditions suppress surface heating compared with seasonal norms of 26–28°C. Recent observations confirm the pattern: September 16–17 featured rain-cooled air masses and northerly flow that kept highs near 23°C, setting up similar steering and thermal profiles for the 18th.
Market-implied probabilities—24°C at 43%, 25°C at 23.5%, and 23°C at 22.5%—closely track this narrow forecast envelope. Minor model spread on exact wind strength or timing of any clearing could nudge the peak by 1°C, but no strong warming signals have emerged. Updated JMA and global model runs on the 17th–18th will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,026วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 18, 2026, with 24°C as the most probable outcome under mostly cloudy skies and northerly flow.** Multiple model runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and international forecasters show daytime maxima clustered around 23–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle in places, and northerly winds associated with a developing tropical depression or typhoon passing south of the main islands. These conditions suppress surface heating compared with seasonal norms of 26–28°C. Recent observations confirm the pattern: September 16–17 featured rain-cooled air masses and northerly flow that kept highs near 23°C, setting up similar steering and thermal profiles for the 18th. Market-implied probabilities—24°C at 43%, 25°C at 23.5%, and 23°C at 22.5%—closely track this narrow forecast envelope. Minor model spread on exact wind strength or timing of any clearing could nudge the peak by 1°C, but no strong warming signals have emerged. Updated JMA and global model runs on the 17th–18th will provide the next key data points before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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