Recent MetService forecasts project a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on May 18 under fine conditions and light southeasterly winds, aligning with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 49% implied probability. Autumn synoptic patterns over the Cook Strait region, featuring cooler southerly flows and limited daytime heating, support this consensus while ensemble models introduce modest uncertainty that elevates the 15°C contract to 37.5%. Historical May averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, and any late-model shift in wind strength or cloud cover could adjust the peak by a degree. Traders appear to price the narrow forecast window and typical one-degree resolution risk for this time of year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 53%
15°C 35%
13°C 10.2%
12°C 2.9%
ใหม่
$31,208 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$31,208 ปริมาณ
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
10%
14°C
53%
15°C
35%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 53%
15°C 35%
13°C 10.2%
12°C 2.9%
ใหม่
$31,208 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$31,208 ปริมาณ
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$681 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$485 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$540 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$4,770 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$3,787 ปริมาณ
3%
13°C
$4,191 ปริมาณ
10%
14°C
$3,745 ปริมาณ
53%
15°C
$2,786 ปริมาณ
35%
16°C
$5,627 ปริมาณ
2%
17°C
$2,889 ปริมาณ
1%
18°C or higher
$1,827 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent MetService forecasts project a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on May 18 under fine conditions and light southeasterly winds, aligning with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 49% implied probability. Autumn synoptic patterns over the Cook Strait region, featuring cooler southerly flows and limited daytime heating, support this consensus while ensemble models introduce modest uncertainty that elevates the 15°C contract to 37.5%. Historical May averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, and any late-model shift in wind strength or cloud cover could adjust the peak by a degree. Traders appear to price the narrow forecast window and typical one-degree resolution risk for this time of year.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,208วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent MetService forecasts project a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on May 18 under fine conditions and light southeasterly winds, aligning with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 49% implied probability. Autumn synoptic patterns over the Cook Strait region, featuring cooler southerly flows and limited daytime heating, support this consensus while ensemble models introduce modest uncertainty that elevates the 15°C contract to 37.5%. Historical May averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, and any late-model shift in wind strength or cloud cover could adjust the peak by a degree. Traders appear to price the narrow forecast window and typical one-degree resolution risk for this time of year.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,208วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNRecent MetService forecasts project a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on May 18 under fine conditions and light southeasterly winds, aligning with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 49% implied probability. Autumn synoptic patterns over the Cook Strait region, featuring cooler southerly flows and limited daytime heating, support this consensus while ensemble models introduce modest uncertainty that elevates the 15°C contract to 37.5%. Historical May averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, and any late-model shift in wind strength or cloud cover could adjust the peak by a degree. Traders appear to price the narrow forecast window and typical one-degree resolution risk for this time of year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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