Trump's approval rating has declined steadily in his second term amid persistent economic pressures and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated with renewed strikes in mid-July 2026. Recent polls place his standing at or near historic lows for the term, with notable drops among Republicans on handling of the economy, foreign policy, and energy prices tied to the conflict. Traders monitor these trends because sustained negative sentiment on core issues like inflation, trade, and national security often compounds through polling cycles leading into the November 2026 midterms. Key variables include any diplomatic breakthroughs or further military developments in the Middle East, shifts in consumer sentiment on gas prices, and legislative or executive actions that could alter perceptions before year-end. Historical patterns show second-term presidents frequently see ratings stabilize or rebound only with tangible policy wins or external events.