Global seismic activity monitored by the USGS shows a typical background rate of magnitude 5.5 and greater earthquakes, driving the strong 80% implied probability for exactly six events this week. Historical USGS catalogs indicate weekly global counts usually range from four to eight absent major aftershock sequences or tectonic swarms, with recent observations confirming no notable clustering along subduction zones or the Pacific Ring of Fire. Model consensus and observational data from the period align closely with these climatological baselines, while final catalog verification near resolution thresholds could shift tallies if additional events meet the magnitude cutoff.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 88.1%
7 1.5%
5 <1%
8 <1%
$139,772 ปริมาณ
$139,772 ปริมาณ
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
1%
6
88%
7
23%
8
1%
9
1%
>9
<1%
6 88.1%
7 1.5%
5 <1%
8 <1%
$139,772 ปริมาณ
$139,772 ปริมาณ
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
1%
6
88%
7
23%
8
1%
9
1%
>9
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity monitored by the USGS shows a typical background rate of magnitude 5.5 and greater earthquakes, driving the strong 80% implied probability for exactly six events this week. Historical USGS catalogs indicate weekly global counts usually range from four to eight absent major aftershock sequences or tectonic swarms, with recent observations confirming no notable clustering along subduction zones or the Pacific Ring of Fire. Model consensus and observational data from the period align closely with these climatological baselines, while final catalog verification near resolution thresholds could shift tallies if additional events meet the magnitude cutoff.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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