Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Republican victory in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's commanding position in the deep-red seat, which forecasters rate as Solid Republican based on Trump carrying the district by 37 points in 2020. Recent developments center on Simpson's upcoming May 19 Republican primary matchup against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, announced in early May, yet his fundraising edge and incumbency track record—reelected comfortably in every cycle since 1998—bolster trader confidence in his renomination. Sparse Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe-seat incumbents further cement the GOP hold through the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,885 ปริมาณ
92%
Democratic Party
$2,059 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Republican victory in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's commanding position in the deep-red seat, which forecasters rate as Solid Republican based on Trump carrying the district by 37 points in 2020. Recent developments center on Simpson's upcoming May 19 Republican primary matchup against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, announced in early May, yet his fundraising edge and incumbency track record—reelected comfortably in every cycle since 1998—bolster trader confidence in his renomination. Sparse Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe-seat incumbents further cement the GOP hold through the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,944วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Republican victory in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's commanding position in the deep-red seat, which forecasters rate as Solid Republican based on Trump carrying the district by 37 points in 2020. Recent developments center on Simpson's upcoming May 19 Republican primary matchup against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, announced in early May, yet his fundraising edge and incumbency track record—reelected comfortably in every cycle since 1998—bolster trader confidence in his renomination. Sparse Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe-seat incumbents further cement the GOP hold through the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,944วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Republican victory in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's commanding position in the deep-red seat, which forecasters rate as Solid Republican based on Trump carrying the district by 37 points in 2020. Recent developments center on Simpson's upcoming May 19 Republican primary matchup against challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, announced in early May, yet his fundraising edge and incumbency track record—reelected comfortably in every cycle since 1998—bolster trader confidence in his renomination. Sparse Democratic opposition and historical base rates for safe-seat incumbents further cement the GOP hold through the November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late scandal, or national midterm wave shifting turnout dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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