Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, during the 2026 Iran war, activating the constitutional succession mechanism. The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in a rapid, near-unanimous vote announced March 9. The transition elevated hardline IRGC-aligned figures and shifted decision-making toward greater security-elite consensus rather than singular clerical authority. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei continues in the role amid military reorganization, intra-regime debates over negotiations, and active conflict management. Trader assessments of further leadership change before any given cutoff therefore center on the durability of this post-assassination structure, potential health or consolidation risks for the new leader, and outcomes of ongoing hostilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$23,639,285 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
August 22
<1%
August 31
1%
September 30
5%
October 31
9%
November 30
11%
31 ธันวาคม
17%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,639,285 ปริมาณ
August 22
$60,148 ปริมาณ
<1%
August 31
$1,195,174 ปริมาณ
1%
September 30
$466,178 ปริมาณ
5%
October 31
$19,392 ปริมาณ
9%
November 30
$14,708 ปริมาณ
11%
31 ธันวาคม
$4,034,269 ปริมาณ
17%
June 30, 2027
$241,225 ปริมาณ
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, during the 2026 Iran war, activating the constitutional succession mechanism. The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in a rapid, near-unanimous vote announced March 9. The transition elevated hardline IRGC-aligned figures and shifted decision-making toward greater security-elite consensus rather than singular clerical authority. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei continues in the role amid military reorganization, intra-regime debates over negotiations, and active conflict management. Trader assessments of further leadership change before any given cutoff therefore center on the durability of this post-assassination structure, potential health or consolidation risks for the new leader, and outcomes of ongoing hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,639,285วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, during the 2026 Iran war, activating the constitutional succession mechanism. The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in a rapid, near-unanimous vote announced March 9. The transition elevated hardline IRGC-aligned figures and shifted decision-making toward greater security-elite consensus rather than singular clerical authority. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei continues in the role amid military reorganization, intra-regime debates over negotiations, and active conflict management. Trader assessments of further leadership change before any given cutoff therefore center on the durability of this post-assassination structure, potential health or consolidation risks for the new leader, and outcomes of ongoing hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,639,285วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, during the 2026 Iran war, activating the constitutional succession mechanism. The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in a rapid, near-unanimous vote announced March 9. The transition elevated hardline IRGC-aligned figures and shifted decision-making toward greater security-elite consensus rather than singular clerical authority. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei continues in the role amid military reorganization, intra-regime debates over negotiations, and active conflict management. Trader assessments of further leadership change before any given cutoff therefore center on the durability of this post-assassination structure, potential health or consolidation risks for the new leader, and outcomes of ongoing hostilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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