**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus projecting an overnight low in the mid-60s for Chicago on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly winds off Lake Michigan, and limited radiative cooling.** Recent days have featured similar mild conditions with lows in the upper 60s amid humid, stormy patterns, keeping temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 57.7 °F. Key differentiating variables include exact cloud timing and thickness, which suppress nocturnal temperature drops, versus any clearing that could allow greater cooling; wind mixing from the southeast also reduces surface decoupling. Short-range model spreads remain modest, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 64–69 °F. Updated NWS and high-resolution runs ahead of sunset on the 18th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Chicago on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 18?
66-67°F 40%
68-69°F 39%
64-65°F 38%
70-71°F 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
57°F or below
4%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
38%
66-67°F
40%
68-69°F
39%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
6%
76°F or higher
4%
66-67°F 40%
68-69°F 39%
64-65°F 38%
70-71°F 19%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 18, 2026
57°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
58-59°F
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
60-61°F
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
62-63°F
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
64-65°F
$0 ปริมาณ
38%
66-67°F
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
68-69°F
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
6%
76°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus projecting an overnight low in the mid-60s for Chicago on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly winds off Lake Michigan, and limited radiative cooling.**
Recent days have featured similar mild conditions with lows in the upper 60s amid humid, stormy patterns, keeping temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 57.7 °F. Key differentiating variables include exact cloud timing and thickness, which suppress nocturnal temperature drops, versus any clearing that could allow greater cooling; wind mixing from the southeast also reduces surface decoupling. Short-range model spreads remain modest, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 64–69 °F. Updated NWS and high-resolution runs ahead of sunset on the 18th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus projecting an overnight low in the mid-60s for Chicago on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly winds off Lake Michigan, and limited radiative cooling.**
Recent days have featured similar mild conditions with lows in the upper 60s amid humid, stormy patterns, keeping temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 57.7 °F. Key differentiating variables include exact cloud timing and thickness, which suppress nocturnal temperature drops, versus any clearing that could allow greater cooling; wind mixing from the southeast also reduces surface decoupling. Short-range model spreads remain modest, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 64–69 °F. Updated NWS and high-resolution runs ahead of sunset on the 18th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus projecting an overnight low in the mid-60s for Chicago on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly winds off Lake Michigan, and limited radiative cooling.** Recent days have featured similar mild conditions with lows in the upper 60s amid humid, stormy patterns, keeping temperatures well above the 1991–2020 average low of 57.7 °F. Key differentiating variables include exact cloud timing and thickness, which suppress nocturnal temperature drops, versus any clearing that could allow greater cooling; wind mixing from the southeast also reduces surface decoupling. Short-range model spreads remain modest, producing the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 64–69 °F. Updated NWS and high-resolution runs ahead of sunset on the 18th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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