Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions on August 5, positioning a minimum near 20°C as the consensus outcome and explaining its 47.5% market-implied probability. A preceding warm spell with daytime highs of 29–32°C has elevated baseline temperatures, limiting nocturnal drops despite typical August diurnal ranges of 8–12°C in the Paris basin. Traders appear to weigh model consensus on light winds and limited cloud cover, which favor the 19–20°C bracket (77% combined odds) while assigning low probability to cooler readings below 18°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these projections.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 5?
20°C 59%
19°C 34%
18°C 6%
17°C 3%
ใหม่
$12,082 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,082 ปริมาณ
Aug 5, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
29%
20°C
48%
21°C
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 59%
19°C 34%
18°C 6%
17°C 3%
ใหม่
$12,082 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,082 ปริมาณ
Aug 5, 2026
16°C or below
$832 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C
$189 ปริมาณ
3%
18°C
$449 ปริมาณ
6%
19°C
$2,777 ปริมาณ
29%
20°C
$1,510 ปริมาณ
48%
21°C
$2,837 ปริมาณ
2%
22°C
$1,040 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$1,022 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$659 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$416 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C or higher
$353 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions on August 5, positioning a minimum near 20°C as the consensus outcome and explaining its 47.5% market-implied probability. A preceding warm spell with daytime highs of 29–32°C has elevated baseline temperatures, limiting nocturnal drops despite typical August diurnal ranges of 8–12°C in the Paris basin. Traders appear to weigh model consensus on light winds and limited cloud cover, which favor the 19–20°C bracket (77% combined odds) while assigning low probability to cooler readings below 18°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,082วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions on August 5, positioning a minimum near 20°C as the consensus outcome and explaining its 47.5% market-implied probability. A preceding warm spell with daytime highs of 29–32°C has elevated baseline temperatures, limiting nocturnal drops despite typical August diurnal ranges of 8–12°C in the Paris basin. Traders appear to weigh model consensus on light winds and limited cloud cover, which favor the 19–20°C bracket (77% combined odds) while assigning low probability to cooler readings below 18°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,082วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models point to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, dry conditions on August 5, positioning a minimum near 20°C as the consensus outcome and explaining its 47.5% market-implied probability. A preceding warm spell with daytime highs of 29–32°C has elevated baseline temperatures, limiting nocturnal drops despite typical August diurnal ranges of 8–12°C in the Paris basin. Traders appear to weigh model consensus on light winds and limited cloud cover, which favor the 19–20°C bracket (77% combined odds) while assigning low probability to cooler readings below 18°C absent a stronger frontal passage. Updated model runs expected overnight will refine these projections.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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