Global forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converged tightly on an overnight minimum of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, reflecting stable high-pressure ridging and moderate maritime airflow from the East China Sea that limited radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology under neutral ENSO conditions places typical Shanghai lows between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to the historical median at coastal stations. Recent model runs showed minimal spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, anchoring the market’s 99.5% implied probability for this exact outcome. Only an unexpected late trough passage or enhanced sea-breeze advection could realistically shift the final reading by one degree, though official China Meteorological Administration verification is expected to confirm the consensus value.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 99.5%
18°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
$11,162 ปริมาณ
$11,162 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.5%
18°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
$11,162 ปริมาณ
$11,162 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$776 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$626 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$563 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$943 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$931 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$2,045 ปริมาณ
100%
20°C
$2,433 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$957 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$528 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$583 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C or higher
$778 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Global forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converged tightly on an overnight minimum of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, reflecting stable high-pressure ridging and moderate maritime airflow from the East China Sea that limited radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology under neutral ENSO conditions places typical Shanghai lows between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to the historical median at coastal stations. Recent model runs showed minimal spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, anchoring the market’s 99.5% implied probability for this exact outcome. Only an unexpected late trough passage or enhanced sea-breeze advection could realistically shift the final reading by one degree, though official China Meteorological Administration verification is expected to confirm the consensus value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,162วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Global forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converged tightly on an overnight minimum of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, reflecting stable high-pressure ridging and moderate maritime airflow from the East China Sea that limited radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology under neutral ENSO conditions places typical Shanghai lows between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to the historical median at coastal stations. Recent model runs showed minimal spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, anchoring the market’s 99.5% implied probability for this exact outcome. Only an unexpected late trough passage or enhanced sea-breeze advection could realistically shift the final reading by one degree, though official China Meteorological Administration verification is expected to confirm the consensus value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,162วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDGlobal forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converged tightly on an overnight minimum of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, reflecting stable high-pressure ridging and moderate maritime airflow from the East China Sea that limited radiative cooling. Mid-May climatology under neutral ENSO conditions places typical Shanghai lows between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to the historical median at coastal stations. Recent model runs showed minimal spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, anchoring the market’s 99.5% implied probability for this exact outcome. Only an unexpected late trough passage or enhanced sea-breeze advection could realistically shift the final reading by one degree, though official China Meteorological Administration verification is expected to confirm the consensus value.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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