PL leads trader consensus at 78% implied probability for the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested, reflecting the Liberal Party’s superior organizational reach, aggressive candidate recruitment, and right-leaning momentum ahead of the first-past-the-post contests across states. Recent presidential polling showing Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead against incumbent Lula has reinforced expectations of coattails for PL contenders, while prior party switches further consolidated its congressional base. Fragmentation among PSD, UNIÃO, REPUBLICANOS, and PT limits their ability to consolidate statewide victories, keeping their combined probabilities below 20% in the current trader assessment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNext Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won
PL 71%
PSD 5.7%
UNIÃO 3.7%
REPUBLICANOS 3.2%
$253,948 ปริมาณ
$253,948 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
PL
77%
PSD
6%
UNIÃO
4%
REPUBLICANOS
3%
PT
3%
PODEMOS
2%
MDB
2%
PSB
1%
NOVO
1%
PSDB
<1%
PP
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 71%
PSD 5.7%
UNIÃO 3.7%
REPUBLICANOS 3.2%
$253,948 ปริมาณ
$253,948 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
PL
$242,655 ปริมาณ
77%
PSD
$1,046 ปริมาณ
6%
UNIÃO
$958 ปริมาณ
4%
REPUBLICANOS
$1,075 ปริมาณ
3%
PT
$1,040 ปริมาณ
3%
PODEMOS
$1,156 ปริมาณ
2%
MDB
$1,012 ปริมาณ
2%
PSB
$1,071 ปริมาณ
1%
NOVO
$1,134 ปริมาณ
1%
PSDB
$1,023 ปริมาณ
<1%
PP
$935 ปริมาณ
<1%
PDT
$843 ปริมาณ
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads trader consensus at 78% implied probability for the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested, reflecting the Liberal Party’s superior organizational reach, aggressive candidate recruitment, and right-leaning momentum ahead of the first-past-the-post contests across states. Recent presidential polling showing Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead against incumbent Lula has reinforced expectations of coattails for PL contenders, while prior party switches further consolidated its congressional base. Fragmentation among PSD, UNIÃO, REPUBLICANOS, and PT limits their ability to consolidate statewide victories, keeping their combined probabilities below 20% in the current trader assessment.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$253,948วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads trader consensus at 78% implied probability for the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested, reflecting the Liberal Party’s superior organizational reach, aggressive candidate recruitment, and right-leaning momentum ahead of the first-past-the-post contests across states. Recent presidential polling showing Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead against incumbent Lula has reinforced expectations of coattails for PL contenders, while prior party switches further consolidated its congressional base. Fragmentation among PSD, UNIÃO, REPUBLICANOS, and PT limits their ability to consolidate statewide victories, keeping their combined probabilities below 20% in the current trader assessment.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$253,948วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL leads trader consensus at 78% implied probability for the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested, reflecting the Liberal Party’s superior organizational reach, aggressive candidate recruitment, and right-leaning momentum ahead of the first-past-the-post contests across states. Recent presidential polling showing Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or narrow lead against incumbent Lula has reinforced expectations of coattails for PL contenders, while prior party switches further consolidated its congressional base. Fragmentation among PSD, UNIÃO, REPUBLICANOS, and PT limits their ability to consolidate statewide victories, keeping their combined probabilities below 20% in the current trader assessment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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